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October 27, 2024
New Zealand secured a significant 113-run victory in the second Test in Pune, marking their first-ever series win in India. This win has heightened the competition for a top-two finish in the World Test Championship 2023-25. India remains in first place, closely followed by Australia, and they can still determine their own fate in the tournament.
However, New Zealand’s consecutive wins, along with South Africa’s recent seven-wicket victory over Bangladesh, have created a competitive scenario where five teams are vying for a spot in the final. Additionally, Pakistan’s impressive comeback to win their series against England 2-1 has given them an outside chance of reaching the final at Lord’s. Meanwhile, West Indies, England, and Bangladesh have been eliminated from contention.
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Pos | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | Points | PCT |
1 | India | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 98 | 62.82 |
2 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 90 | 62.5 |
3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
4 | New Zealand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 60 | 50 |
5 | South Africa | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 47.62 |
6 | England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 93 | 40.79 |
7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 33.33 |
8 | Bangladesh | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 33 | 30.56 |
9 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 18.52 |
Matches left:1 Test vs NZ (H); 5 Tests vs Aus (A)
To secure a spot in the World Test Championship final without depending on other results, India has a straightforward task: they need to win at least four of their remaining six Tests, ideally starting with the next match in Mumbai. Achieving this would give them a percentage of points (PCT) of 64.03%, which can only be surpassed by South Africa or Sri Lanka at this stage.
Even if India wins the Mumbai Test, they can still qualify by taking the five-match Border-Gavaskar series, even if it’s by the narrowest margin (like 1-0), as long as the upcoming South Africa vs. Sri Lanka series doesn’t end in a 1-1 draw. However, draws have been quite rare in this championship cycle, with only three out of 49 Tests ending in a draw, all due to rain interruptions.
If India finishes the remaining Tests with a record of 3 wins and 3 losses, their PCT would drop to 58.77%. This would put them in a vulnerable position, as teams like Australia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, and New Zealand could surpass them in points.
Matches left: 1 Test vs Ind (A); 3 Tests vs Eng (H)
New Zealand’s impressive comeback after their defeat in Sri Lanka has allowed them to move ahead of South Africa in the standings. If they win all four of their remaining matches, they would achieve a points percentage (PCT) of 64.29%. However, this may not be sufficient, as two other teams in contention could surpass that PCT.
For New Zealand to secure a top-two finish, they will need the winner of the South Africa vs. Sri Lanka series to lose at least one of their remaining matches, in addition to New Zealand winning all their games. If the series results in a clean sweep, they would also need either India or Australia to perform poorly. Even if New Zealand manages to secure three wins, giving them a PCT of 57.14%, they could still have an outside chance of qualifying if other results favor them.
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Matches left:1 Test vs Ban (A); 2 Tests vs SL (H); 2 Tests vs Pak (H)
South Africa is currently in fifth place in the standings, with a points percentage (PCT) of 47.61%. If they win all five of their remaining Tests, they will achieve a PCT of 69.44%, securing a top-two finish.
Even if they win four out of those five matches, their PCT would rise to 61.11%, which would still keep them in contention for the final, depending on the results of other matches involving India, Australia, and Sri Lanka.
Matches left: 2 Tests vs SA (A); 2 Tests vs Aus (H)
Sri Lanka’s recent resurgence, with three consecutive wins in their last three Tests, has put them in a strong position. If they extend this winning streak to seven matches, their points percentage (PCT) will rise to 69.23%, which can only be surpassed by either India or Australia.
If Sri Lanka secures three wins out of their remaining matches, their PCT would be 61.53%. In this scenario, they would need New Zealand to lose at least one of their remaining four games to make the outcome of the Border-Gavaskar series irrelevant. Additionally, if the South Africa vs. Sri Lanka series ends in a 1-1 draw and both teams win their remaining matches, Sri Lanka would still narrowly edge out South Africa in PCT (61.53% vs. 61.11%).
Matches left: 5 Tests vs Ind (H); 2 Tests vs SL (A)
Australia, who haven’t played Test matches since their 2-0 sweep of New Zealand in February-March, have a challenging schedule ahead. They will face top-ranked India (in five Tests) and third-placed Sri Lanka (in two Tests) for the remainder of the World Test Championship cycle.
If Australia wins five out of their seven remaining matches, their points percentage (PCT) will rise to 65.79%, which should secure them a spot in the final. Winning four matches would give them a PCT of 60.52%, putting them in a precarious position, as that could be surpassed by two of the following teams: India, Sri Lanka, or South Africa. If they win fewer than four matches, they will need to rely heavily on other results to advance.
Matches left: 2 Tests vs SA (A); 2 Tests vs WI (H)
Pakistan made a remarkable comeback to secure a 2-1 series victory against England at home. However, this may not be enough to improve their chances significantly, given their poor start in the World Test Championship cycle. If they manage to win four of their remaining matches, their points percentage (PCT) would rise to 52.38%. This might only be sufficient if several other results go in their favor, including some draws that could prevent other competing teams from earning points.
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